Hatchwise
Software review

Thonest review: the public record of what people said would happen

Thonest keeps a public record of predictions and claims: the exact words someone said, a link to the original source, the test that will settle the claim, locked before the outcome, and what actually happened. Anyone can put a claim on the record from a public source. The tagline is the product in one line: see what they said, see what happened.

This review sticks to what Thonest publishes on its own site, read on October 4, 2026, and to what its rivals publish on theirs. Hatchwise has no commercial relationship with Thonest, Polymarket, TrustMRR or ShowMRR.

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The short version

Six lines, if you are in a hurry

  • Thonest is a public record of what people and companies said would happen: exact words, original source, criteria locked before the outcome, and what happened.
  • Anyone can paste a public source (an X post, video, podcast, article or newsletter) and put a claim on the record.
  • Quotes are checked mechanically against the source. A quote the source does not contain is refused, not reviewed.
  • Records settle three ways: automatically, on evidence with a named reviewer, or preserved and never scored.
  • The outcome words are Condition met or Condition not met. No honesty scores, and no calling anyone a liar.
  • There is no public pricing right now.
3
ways a record can settle, shown on every card
6
lifecycle states a record moves through, from Open to Preserved and not scored
72
hours to acknowledge a dispute, and 14 days to resolve one
How it works

What happens between spotting a claim and seeing the outcome

  1. Step 01

    Paste the source

    Anyone can put a claim on the record. You paste the X post, video, podcast, article or newsletter where the call was made. Thonest fetches the source and checks the words against it, which takes 15 to 30 seconds, and nothing is saved until you review the details.

  2. Step 02

    The test gets locked

    If the claim names something measurable and a date, Thonest locks the test that settles it and starts the clock. If it does not, the claim still goes on the record, dated and sourced, but it is never scored. The system refuses to attach resolution criteria to a statement whose own words carry no objective test.

  3. Step 03

    The clock runs in public

    A record moves through one public lifecycle: Open while the deadline has not arrived, then Condition met, Condition not met, Could not be determined or Unresolvable. Statements too vague to test are Preserved with their source, and that is all.

  4. Step 04

    Disputes and corrections

    Anyone can dispute a record or a resolution, and the person the record is about gets a priority lane. A dispute is acknowledged within 72 hours and resolved within 14 days. Corrections are appended to the record rather than edited over it, so you can always see what Thonest said first.

At a glance

Thonest in ten lines

What it is
A public record of what people and companies said would happen: the exact words, the original source, the criteria fixed before the outcome, and what actually happened
Where records come from
Anyone can submit a public source: an X post, a video, a podcast, an article or a newsletter. Records about other people are limited to public figures and organizations speaking publicly on matters of public concern
Quote checking
Every record must quote its source exactly. The wording is checked mechanically against what the source returned, and a quote the source does not contain is refused rather than reviewed
How a record settles
Three ways, shown on every record: automatically from a supported data source, on evidence with a named reviewer and published reasoning, or preserved with its source and never scored
Outcome words
Open, Condition met, Condition not met, Could not be determined, Unresolvable, or Preserved and not scored. Thonest does not publish words like lied, and there is no honesty score
Who is on the record
Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Ray Kurzweil, Nate Silver, Gary Marcus, Jakob Nielsen, Peter Brandt and Benjamin Cowen, among others
Disputes
Anyone can dispute a record or a resolution, and the person a record is about gets a priority lane. Acknowledgement within 72 hours, resolution or status within 14 days
Corrections
The original record is never edited. A correction is appended, the original stays visible, and both are anchored
Anchoring
Records are anchored to the Base blockchain in batches, and a public completeness manifest lets anyone hold and check a copy
Cost
No public pricing. The pricing page reads that it has been retired
What works

Where Thonest earns its place

  • The quote is checked before the record exists. A statement the source does not contain is refused mechanically rather than argued over, which is a stronger guarantee than editorial review.
  • The test is locked before the outcome. Criteria are fixed while the deadline is still in the future, so the goalposts cannot move after the fact.
  • It refuses false precision. Statements with no objective test are preserved, not scored, and the system enforces that in code rather than by policy alone.
  • The words stay evidence-shaped. Outcomes read Condition met or Condition not met, never lied or broken promise, and no honesty score is attached to a person.
  • The subject of a record gets a priority dispute lane, and a dispute is public the moment it is filed.
  • The audit trail is the product. Corrections are appended, originals are never edited, records are anchored to Base, and a public manifest lets you hold a copy that would prove it if one quietly disappeared.
  • It says what it has not built. Automatic settlement covers only a small allowlist, there is no external reviewer pool, and disputes are handled by hand, all stated on the methodology page.
What to weigh

The limits worth knowing first

  • It is young, and it shows. A claims record is only as useful as the volume of submissions behind it, and that volume is still being built.
  • Most records still need a person. Automatic settlement covers only a small allowlisted set of metrics, there is no named external reviewer pool, and dispute resolution is handled by hand.
  • The mirror guarantee is unproven. Thonest asks journalists and archivists to hold copies of its manifest, and says plainly that, as far as it knows, nobody has yet. Until one does, that guarantee is a promise rather than a proof.
  • Private individuals are out of scope. Records about other people are limited to public figures and organizations on matters of public concern, and private individuals are never scored.
  • There is no public pricing. The pricing page reads that it has been retired, so there is no published price to check before you rely on it.
  • Blockchain anchoring will not move most readers. It is a serious anti-deletion measure, but bulk record text and datasets are licensed separately, so the anchored digest is not the full data.
The competition

How Thonest compares to Polymarket, TrustMRR and the rest

Putting numbers on the record has split into three shapes. A prediction market prices the outcome and pays the winners. A revenue directory verifies what a business earned for people sizing it up. Thonest is the third shape: a record of the words themselves, with the test locked before anyone knows the answer. Comparing it to a market or a directory on features alone misses the point.

Polymarket

What it is
A prediction market where you trade on the outcomes of future events. Polymarket calls itself the world's largest prediction market.
Where it overlaps
Both put a date and an outcome on a public record.
Where they differ
Polymarket is money: the crowd prices the odds and pays the winners. Thonest records the exact words a person actually said and holds those words to the test they imply. If you want to bet, use Polymarket. If you want accountability for what someone said, that is Thonest.

Long Bets

What it is
An arena for accountable predictions, known for long-horizon public bets between named people.
Where it overlaps
Both exist to make a prediction impossible to quietly forget.
Where they differ
Long Bets handles a small number of long-term bets between willing participants. Thonest records claims as they happen, at volume, from public sources.

TrustMRR

What it is
A database of verified startup revenues built around buying and selling businesses. Listings carry revenue, asking price and a multiple, alongside a public MRR leaderboard.
Where it overlaps
Both exist because a claim you cannot check is worth little.
Where they differ
TrustMRR verifies what a startup earned, because the reader is sizing up an acquisition. Thonest verifies the exact words someone said and holds them to the test they imply. One is about money made, the other about words said.

ShowMRR

What it is
A verified startup revenue database with a leaderboard, a marketplace, a revenue API and co-founder matching. Founders connect Lemon Squeezy, Stripe or Polar to publish real MRR.
Where it overlaps
Both publish facts you can trace back to a source.
Where they differ
ShowMRR is a revenue directory plus data layer: the value is being findable next to other startups. Thonest records stated claims at volume from public sources and holds each one to a test locked before the outcome.

Indie Hackers products

What it is
Founders list products and revenue publicly alongside posts and discussion, in front of a large existing audience.
Where it overlaps
Both are public records aimed at people who make claims in the open.
Where they differ
Indie Hackers is a discussion community first, and what gets published there is volunteered. Thonest checks the words on the record mechanically against the source, so even the quotes are verified rather than volunteered.

Your own posts, kept by hand

What it is
Quoting yourself when the deadline passes and linking the original post, video or interview.
Where it overlaps
Both preserve what was said and what happened.
Where they differ
Self-kept receipts are easy to lose, easy to edit and nobody else is watching the deadline. A third-party record with a locked test and an appended correction trail is harder to argue with.

Claims about each service were read from its own live pages on October 4, 2026. Where a rival does not publish a price, we do not guess one.

Verdict

Who should use it, and who should not

It fits if

You want to know what someone actually said before the outcome, not after. Researchers, journalists and anyone tracking claims about AI, markets or politics get a dated, sourced quote with a locked test, and a correction trail if anything changes.

It does not fit if

You want to bet money on outcomes, which is what prediction markets are for. You want verified revenue proof with no claims attached, which is closer to TrustMRR. Or you expect every record to settle automatically, when only a small allowlisted set does.

The honest summary is narrow and useful. Thonest does not judge anyone, and it does not try to. It does one specific thing: it takes a claim that was made in public, keeps the exact words, locks the test before the outcome, and writes down what happened, with a correction trail nobody can quietly edit. If you argue about what people predicted, that is a real product.

Visit Thonest
Questions

Thonest questions, answered plainly

What is Thonest?

Thonest is a public record of what people and companies said would happen. Each record keeps the exact words, the original source, the criteria fixed before the outcome, and what actually happened. Records are organized by person, company and topic, and anyone can put a claim on the record from a public source such as an X post, a video, a podcast, an article or a newsletter.

How does Thonest verify a record?

Every record must quote its source exactly, and the wording is checked mechanically against the response the platform itself returned. A quote the source does not contain is refused rather than reviewed. If the claim names something measurable and a date, Thonest locks the test that settles it before the deadline, so the criteria cannot change after the fact.

How does a Thonest record settle?

Three ways, shown on every record. Some settle automatically from a supported data source against the locked test, with no human judgment. Some settle on evidence, where a named reviewer applies the locked criteria to public evidence and publishes the reasoning. Statements with no objective test are preserved with their source and never scored.

Can anyone record a claim about anyone?

Anyone may register their own prediction. Records about other people are limited to public figures and organizations speaking publicly on matters of public concern. Thonest does not record third-party statements by private individuals and does not score private individuals under any circumstances. The person a record is about gets a priority lane in disputes.

What words does Thonest use for outcomes?

A record moves through one public lifecycle: Open, then Condition met, Condition not met, Could not be determined, Unresolvable, or Preserved and not scored. Thonest does not publish words like lied or broken promise, and there is no honesty score for a person. Historical records added after their outcome was known are always identified as retrospective and excluded from pre-outcome track records.

How do Thonest disputes work?

Anyone can dispute a record or a resolution, and the subject gets a priority lane. A dispute is acknowledged within 72 hours of filing and resolved or statused within 14 days. The dispute being filed is public immediately, and the outcome is appended to the record's history whether it goes against Thonest or not. Corrections are appended rather than edited over, so the original always stays visible.

How much does Thonest cost?

There is no public pricing. Thonest's pricing page reads that it has been retired, so no price is published, and we do not state one.

How is Thonest different from Polymarket?

Polymarket is a prediction market where you trade on outcomes, and the crowd prices the odds. Thonest is not a market and involves no money. It records the exact words a person or company said, locks the test before the outcome, and publishes what happened. If you want to bet, use Polymarket. If you want accountability for what was said, that is Thonest.

How is Thonest different from TrustMRR?

TrustMRR is a marketplace and leaderboard of verified startup revenues, built around buying and selling businesses. Thonest is not a marketplace and does not handle revenue. It records the exact words someone said, locks the test before the outcome, and publishes what happened. Buyers use TrustMRR; anyone who wants accountability for public claims uses Thonest.

Who should not bother with Thonest?

Anyone who wants to bet on outcomes, which is what prediction markets are for. Anyone who wants verified revenue proof rather than a record of claims, which is closer to TrustMRR. And anyone expecting every record to settle automatically, since only a small allowlisted set does.

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